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The primary objective of this paper is to examine the role of the exchange rate in determining short-and-long-run trade balance behavior for Colombia in a model which includes money and income. That is, the aim is to examine whether the trade balance ¡is affected by the exchange rate and whether…
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"In compliance with the Basic Legal Circular 029 of 2014, of the Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia, and other regulations that amend, add to, or complement it, Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia) established within the Bank the Risk Management System for Money…
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Colombia has traditionally been regarded as a success story in terms of economic growth and stability. According to Figure 1A, this reputation is based on the macroeconomic performance between the 1930s and 1970s, characterized by increasing GDP growth rates combined with a reduction in volatility…
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This paper provides evidence of positive externalities in human capital that help to explain divergences in development worldwide. We estimate the supply and demand for human capital using a five-year panel involving 60 countries, covering the period 1980-2000, and found that there exists positive…
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Can frictionless small open economy models driven solely by technology shocks account for business cycles in developing countries? We do not find evidence of it. We build a DSGE model that jointly includes a variety of real perturbations in addition to technology shocks, such as procyclical fiscal…
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This article first explores the cyclical dynamics of remittances, and then, analyzes the macroeconomic impact of remittances and the monetary policy implications. In this endeavor, we use the case of the Philippines, one of the countries where remittances are substantial. A dynamic structural…
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This paper explores whether the agglomeration of human capital leads to social employment advantages in urban labor markets of Colombia. It compares employment opportunities in urban areas where the level of education differs while controlling for plausible confounders using census data for 1993…
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In this episode of ‘Cuentas y Cuentos,’ Roberto Steiner, member of the Board of Directors of Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia), shares his passion for soccer, his career at Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia) (Banrep) and reveals details of the recent book ‘…
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The relatively large depreciation of the Colombian peso to the US dollar during 2002 has posed a challenge for Colombian monetary policy. From end-2001 to end-2002 the USD/COP rate of exchange depreciated by some 20.0 percent,1 while consumer prices during the same period increased by 7.0 percent…
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We examine Colombian export transaction data from customs records in several dimensions. We begin with some basic statistics on the number and frequency of export transactions by a firm, overall and across individual markets. We then decompose the variation in overall exports into the number…
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Central banks have achieved positive results for inflation during the last two decades. At the same time, their concern for financial stability has increased, particularly after the late nineties, when they experienced the high costs that come with financial crisis.1 Moreover, it now seems clear…
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A financial crisis usually is due to the emergence of one or more risks to the financial system at a particular point in time. The costs to the economy affected by a crisis are high, which is why financial system stability is of constant concern to economic authorities, including the central banks.
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In recent years, different mergers have taken place both in the financial and manufacturing sectors. These processes have raised questions as to the policies implemented with regard to trade offs between profits via efficiency and those related to social costs, given the presence of greater market…
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The private corporate sector is the primary debtor in the Colombian financial system (commercial loans account for 54.9% of the total gross portfolio). Consequently, it is extremely important to measure and monitor the risk this sector of the economy might pose to the financial system. Ever since…
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The financial system’s response to the various phases of the cycle is characterized by high credit growth during the upswing phase and its rationing during the downswing. This behavior is related to the financial system’s tendency to underestimate the credit risk during the upturn and to…
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In this paper we develop a banking model to study the traditional credit and the microcredit markets. We suppose a monopolistic traditional bank that specializes in screening potential debtors based on their risk profile and a microcredit bank that focus on monitoring the riskier profile customers…
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Research on banking performance and efficiency has advanced greatly in the past three decades, justified by the importance of a properly functioning financial system to the economy in general. In Colombia, too, banks have been the subject of research studies, though as yet to a lesser extent than…
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In this document we develop a DSGE model to analyze the eect that a consumption boom and a productivity shock have over nancial stability and macroeconomic variables, in both, an economy with and without Basel III capital requirements and earnings reinvestment rule. The results suggest that Basel…
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The financial crisis of the late 2000's highlighted the importance of strengthening risk management systems in financial markets. Consequently, an increasing interest in strategies to quantify risk under extreme scenarios has spawned. One of such techniques is CrashMetrics, a methodology for…
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In recent years, credit growth has been accelerated recording higher levels of credit as a percentage of GDP, compared to previous years in some countries of Latin America. In Colombia, credit to GDP indicator had increased almost 10 percentage points in the last ve years. For this reason, it is…
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In this paper we seek to assess the ability of banks to withstand the effects of an increase in credit risk as a result of changes in the macroeconomic environment. To do so we estimate a credit risk model for each loan type as a function of four macroeconomic variables commonly used in the…
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