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The recovery in total employment observed since mid-2020 came to a halt in the early months of 2020, largely because of the waves of Covid-19 contagion, which involved self-care responses on the part of individuals, as well the implementation of isolation measures in several cities to lessen…

This paper analyzes the economic rationale for adopting parametric pension reforms and  reforms broadening the coverage of public health care in Colombia during 1993–2008. Parametric pension reforms have focused on increasing the retirement age and moderating  replacement rates. The…

‘Determinantes socioeconómicos y convergencia espacial del bienestar biológico: El caso de la estatura en Colombia 1920-1990’ Enfoque: la estatura promedio de una población ha sido utilizada en la historia económica como un indicador de calidad de vida y crecimiento económico. La estatura…

This paper considers an overlapping generations model in which capital investment is financed in a credit market with adverse selection. Lenders’ inability to commit ex-ante not to bailout ex-post, together with a wealthy position of entrepreneurs gives rise to the soft budget constraint syndrome,…

Conference on China, Hong Kong Monetary Research Institute, January 10 and 11 2013.

Participation notes for the Colloquium in honor of Prof. José Manuel González-Páramo, organized by the European Central Bank.Frankfurt.

Some evidence of smooth transition Some evidence of smooth transitíons nonlinearity in Colombian inflation

Presented at Chatham House City Series 2010 Conference.

XLV Meeting of Central Bank Governors of the American Continent organized by CEMLA. Bank of Canada, Ottawa.

his paper surveys some facts relevant for the understanding of the Colombian experience with public finance and debt since 1923. The stylized facts are classified in three groups as follows: first, facts associated with the dependence of the economy on the external sector; second, facts which…

Some univariate time series properties of output Some univariate time series properties of output

We study the determinants of sovereign default risk for a group of 23 OECD countries using quarterly data spanning the period between 2000:Q1 and 2016:Q3. Applying the recently developed panel dynamic heterogeneous common correlated effects estimator of Chudik and Pesaran [2015] our study innovates…

This paper investigates the impact of sovereign risk on the stochastic rational expectations equilibrium of a pure exchange small open economy. International borrowing and lending arise from the interaction between a risk averse sovereign representative agent in a small open economy trying to self…

This paper investigates the effect of sovereign risk on the stochastic rational expectations equilibrium of a real business cycle small open economy. The market is imperfect because the sovereign cannot commit to repay its outstanding debt and chooses to default when it is optimal to do so. The…

We estimate a model of real exchange rate determination which is based on interest rate, term structure and purchasing power parities. This model takes into account sovereign risk as a key determinant with possibly non-linear effects. Estimations are performed for five Latin-American economies:…

This paper offers some preliminary steps in the marriage of some of the theoretical foundations of the new economic geography with spatial computable general equilibrium models.  Modeling the spatial economy of Colombia using the traditional assumptions of CGE models makes little sense when…

The empirical literature about economic growth has usually ignored spatial interdependence among countries. This paper uses spatial econometrics to estimate a growth model that includes cross-country interdependence, in which a country’s economic growth depends on the growth rate of its neighbors.…

I must begin by saying something that you know very well. The policy interest rate of Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia) has drastically increased over the past year and a half, completing an increase of 11 pp since the beginning of the current cycle of increases in September 2021…

Speech by the Governor during the debate on the draft Government Budget for 2023 held on 30 August 2022.

From: 2022

This paper contributes an estimation framework to measure both technological and linkage externalities from foreign direct investment (FDI). Empirical research dealt mainly with intra-industry spillovers from FDI with restrictive treatment of inter-industry effects until recently. However, as…

Since: 2004

   

Abstract One of the lessons we learned from the 2008 financial crisis was the importance of monitoring the systemic risk in the stability of financial systems. In this regard, lines of research have been developed with the aim to provide reliable and timely metrics on this risk, taking as much…