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In this document we estimate credit and GDP cycles for three Latin-American economies and study their relation in the time and frequency domains. Cycles are estimated in order to analyze their medium and short-term frequencies. We find that short-term cycles are usually more volatile than medium-…
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Abstract
We study the interdependence of FX and Treasury Bonds (TES) markets in Colombia. To do this, we estimate a heteroskedasticity identified VAR model on the returns of the COP/USD exchange rate (TRM) and bond prices, as well as event-analysis models for return volatilities, number of…
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The objective of this paper is to analyze how international cycles affect the real GDP cycle and so monetary policy decisions in Colombia. We estimate that cycles in world GDP, export prices and capital inflows are strongly associated with the Colombian business cycle both on impact and even during…
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On April 29, 2022, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a successor two-year arrangement under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) for 7,155.7 million Special Drawing Rights (SDR) (i.e., 350% of the country’s quota at the Fund), equivalent to about USD $9.8 billion.
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On March 25, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) met to finalize the Article IV annual consultation with Colombia and published the staff report discussed at that meeting, as well as a press release illustrating the discussion held at the IMF board and the statement made by…
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The IMF highlights the proper management by the Colombian authorities, which allowed to consolidate the economic adjustment and continue advancing on inclusive growth during 2017.
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We study the effect of shocks to the United States government bonds term premium on Latin American government bonds term premia. For doing so, we compute dynamic multipliers. Our main findings indicate that Latin American countries’ term premia respond permanently to changes in United States term…
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Abstract
How does the expansion of domestic banks in international markets affect the bank lending channel of monetary policy? Using bank-firm loan-level data, we find that loan growth and loan rates from international banks respond less to monetary policy changes than domestic banks and that…
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In March of 1923, President Pedro Nel Ospina commissioned a group of experts, headed by Prof. Edwin Walter Kemmerer. This commission later became known as the Kemmerer Commission.
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In 2014, Colombia implemented a policy that added flexibilization to labor contracts for part-time workers that reduced the quasi-fixed costs of employing formal workers. We find that the reform increased the probability of entering the formal sector within the targeted population: low-…
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We provide an overview of the primary structural features of the labor market in Colombia and survey the margins of adjustment of the market during the pandemic. Given the decline of real wages amid the post-pandemic inflationary surge, mainly due to the formal wage rigidity in the short…
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The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.
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Abstract
This paper studies the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on corporate credit in Colombia. We first exploit the geographic and temporal variation in the disease spread to estimate the effect of local exposure to the virus on credit. Our estimates indicate that neither local exposure to the…
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Macroprudential policy in Colombia is described along with a discussion of the main challenges faced by the authorities in implementing it and a review of episodes in which macroprudential measures were taken. An overview and some estimates of their effectiveness in preventing the buildup of…
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The Magic Coin is an animated pedagogical game that is part of the economic education program BanRep Educa. It aims to promote children’s understanding of basic economic concepts in a simple and didactic way. Through this game, participants will:
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The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.
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The analysis of the impacts of coffee bonanzas and crisis on the Colombian economy, given its importance, has been one of the favorite topics of research both by Colombian and foreing economists, Cárdenas (1991); Carkovic (1992); Cuddington (1986); Ocampo (1994); Posada (1992); Urrutia and Suescún…
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This study reports evidence of the existence of house price bubbles in several Canadian provinces around the recent global financial crisis. Using a wealth of monthly data for about a thirty-year period we find evidence supporting the hypothesis that the bubble in Quebec transmitted to four other…
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Abstract
Over the past 30 years, monetary and macroprudential policy in Colombia evolved towards the pursuit of a low and credible inflation target and a stable financial system. The protracted inflation that began in the early seventies was defeated at the turn of the century with the help of the…
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During the transition from a moderately high level of inflation to an internationally accepted level, the target, the inflation rate, the nominal interest rate and the nominal equilibrium interest rate may be difference stationary. Policy rules estimation, however, is usually performed under…
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The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not commit Banco de la Republica or its Board of Directors.
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