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Since: 1994

This paper identifies Okun´s law in Colombia between 1984 and 2016 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) as there is evidence of a long-term relationship between the unemployment rate and the GDP. Results suggest that after a one percent increase in GDP, the unemployment rate is reduced by 0…

In this paper, we study the coexistence of cash and electronic payments introducing some distortions in the payments markets to understand the widespread use of cash, specially in emerging countries. 

In this paper we analyze the effects of financial constraints on the exchange rate through the portfolio balance channel. Our contribution is twofold: First, we construct a tractable two-period general equilibrium model in which financial constraints inhibit capital flows. Hence, departures from…

We contribute to the empirical literature on housing subsidies by showing that a change in their targeting can increase the supply of credit.

We evaluate the effectiveness of consumer debt moratoria, one of the earliest policy interventions aimed at alleviating debt burdens. Using administrative data from Colombia, our study compares households that narrowly qualified for the moratorium (eligible up to 60 days overdue on their mortgages…

Using monthly information on retail trade, we study the short-term dynamics of household consumption variations in Colombia. Based on a sample of retail trade excluding fuels and vehicles, we find that the growth of household consumption can be explained by lags in the Economy Monitoring Indicator…

This paper is aimed to identify the main determinants of the structural unemployment rate (SUR) in Colombia. To this end, we initially look up theoretical determinants of structural unemployment as defined by a basic search and matching model. Then, we estimate different measures of the SUR…

In Colombia, 50% of labor income is lower than the legal MW level. It is in this context that we analyze the effect of increasing MW on labor income distribution and its inequality, household income distribution and its inequality, and on monetary poverty prevalence.

The disruption in container freight rates caused a 0.4% loss in welfare in Colombia. This percentage represents a decrease in the present value of the population's consumption due to the drop in real wages and is attributable solely to the direct effects of freight rates on the goods that Colombia…

This paper examines the relationship between three government support measures (debt moratorium, credit guarantee programs, and payroll subsidies) and the firm’s payment behavior on loans in Colombia

This study examines the determinants of sovereign risk, focusing on the impact of geopolitical risk in emerging market economies (EMEs) sovereign risk metrics. Using local projection techniques, we evaluate the effects of geopolitical risk on credit default swaps (CDS) and EMBI indices in EMEs,…

Healthcare expenditure in Colombia is expected to increase by 35% over the next eight years, due to population aging, rising costs, and domestic policies. These trends, in a context of high levels of informality and affiliation to the subsidized regime, add significant pressure to public finances. 

This paper evaluates seven output gap models for real-time estimates, based on three criteria: stability of estimations on new observations, data revisions and/or methodological changes; inflation forecasting accuracy; and potential output response to structural economic shocks. 

Transparency is often emphasized as a key element for central bank independence and the effectiveness of monetary policy. Between 2018 and 2019, the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la República) undertook a significant overhaul of its monetary decision-making process, which led to significant…

Natural disasters affect both the level and volatility of sovereign risk premiums in emerging economies, whereas stock market only experience changes in volatility.

Most macroeconomic labor literature on estimating matching functions does not consider spatial spillover effects. However, job search and vacancy-filling processes often involve neighboring locations, as local workers can search for and fill vacancies in nearby labor markets. 

This paper analyzes whether the policy of VAT exemption days, implemented in Colombia between 2020 and 2022 for some products and merchandise lines, had a positive effect on the consumption of such exempted goods.

Abstract: This paper employs network analysis to study world trade from 1995 to 2014. We focus on the main connective features of the world trade network (WTN) and their dynamics. Results suggest that countries’ efforts to attain the benefits of trade have resulted in an intertwined network…

RESUMEN NO TÉCNICO‘Retornos de la capacitación para el trabajo en Colombia: evidencia basada en la Encuesta Social Longitudinal’  

Este documento evalúa el Proyecto de Acto Legislativo aprobado en su sexto debate, el cual busca aumentar los recursos transferidos a las regiones a través del Sistema General de Participaciones (SGP). Desde una perspectiva histórica, el sistema de transferencias a los territorios se fortaleció con…

Freely Convertible Currencies

  On the occasion of its fourteenth special edition, Banco de la República´s Ensayos sobre Política Económica (ESPE) journal invites you to the seminar on Challenges of Fiscal Policy in the face of the Recent Macroeconomic Uncertainty. It will take place on the 20th of October of this year, in…

Can technological misallocation generate financial frictions? We build a theoretical model with testable implications, in which the misallocation between R&D and production activities generates borrowing constraints. The investor offers the innovator a rent that is contingent to the success of…

In the last years, there have been a series of changes related to global trends in the supply of financial services. These trends include economic integration, technological change, increased competition, disintermediation, deregulation and financial crises.1 Colombia has not been apart from this…